The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be here soon and on Thursday, the experts at Colorado State released their seasonal outlook.
Through the years, Colorado State has been releasing hurricane outlooks which are well respected in the meteorological community.
For the 2024 season, CSU is calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms,7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
The development of La Nina, which decreases wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean, combined with extremely high sea surface temperature anomalies compared to average is expected to help produce an extremely active season.
In their forecast, CSU said “Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
You can read the full report here. CSU will release an updated forecast in June. NOAA will release their seasonal outlook ahead of the first day of Hurricane Season, which is June 1st.
Climatologically, most storms form during the months of August, September and October.
