SUNDAY’S RAIN:
Sunday will be the soggy day. The rain will move in from the south during the morning and continue all afternoon and evening. Showers can be expected in the southern OBX as early as 9-10am. Rain will become heavier as the day goes on. Rain totals will approach to the 2″ mark by the time the rain comes to an end late Monday morning. Isolated higher amounts are possible, excessive rainfall will cause flooding in a few locations as well.
Depending on the exact track of the low, we could even see a few stronger storms with the potential to produce damaging winds. In the southern OBX, where temperatures will be a little warmer leading to some instability, a level 2 severe weather risk has been issued. Gusty winds and even an isolated tornado will be possible late in the day Sunday.
If the low tracks further west, this severe weather risk could be shifted north and west.
WIND GUSTS:
The wind will increase during the day Sunday. We expect to see wind gusts close to 40-50 mph for much of eastern VA Sunday night and early Monday morning. In VA Beach along the immediate coast, a 60 mph gust could occur. Inland spots I expect things to be in the 35-45 mph range. For the OBX , gusts could approach 55-60 mph and stay sustained in the 20-40 mph range for awhile.
The strongest winds are expected from 6pm Sunday evening through 3am Monday morning.
The wind will shift for Monday with some 30-35 mph gusts, mainly in the morning. Winds decrease late Monday with some 15-30 mph gusts on Tuesday.
COASTAL FLOODING:
The wind will lead to coastal flooding for the communities along the northern part of the Abermarle Sound, Back Bay area in VA Beach and the James and York Rivers. Parts of the middle Peninsula and Eastern Shore could also see some higher than normal tides. The highest tide will occur close to 3 AM Monday for the James and York Rivers.
I’m keeping a very close eye on Eilzabeth City. Some model data shows moderate tidal flooding for you as we go into Sunday night/early Monday. If you have a property along the shoreline, make sure you stay tuned for any further updates to the tide level.
The wind will turn to be out of the west by Monday. This will lead to some soundside flooding in the OBX. A 2-4 ft above ground level impact is currently forecast.
LOOKING AHEAD:
Things calm down for Tuesday! We’ll see partly sunny skies with temperatures in the low 40s. A stray shower could occur. Drier and staying cool for much of next week, with highs climbing back into the 50s by Thursday.
Hope you have a great weekend!
