Yesterday was nice! As predicted we had a lot of sunshine over the region. High temps hit the mid 50s over most of the area. There wasn’t much wind, and the strong sun was very warm and comforting. Today we’ll have a little bit more of a southwest breeze. High pressure has slid slightly more to the southeast, but it is basically still overhead.
We’ll be mostly sunny again today. High temps will hit the low 60s this afternoon. It will be awesome outside. A taste of Spring!
It should be great weather for outdoor activities.
There is a weak cool front to our west. It will stay out there today. It may move in tomorrow. However, it looks like it will fall apart or basically turn into a weak wind-shift as it moves east. High temps will be in the low-mid 60s. If the winds do change, then then may be close to today’s numbers or slightly below. Either way it will be another warm day with lots of sunshine.
We’ll be warm and dry on Saturday. We’ll have high pressure in the region with lots of sun and a southwest breeze. I believe high temps will run up to the mid-upper 60s. As I mentioned in yesterday’s weather blog…It will be the first warm/dry (weekend) day that we’ll have had in a long time. So get ready to enjoy that! However, Sunday is a completely different story.
A cold front is still forecast to move into the region on Sunday. It will probably arrive by the morning. This could kick off some mixed precip already. However, the models disagree on the amount of moisture with the front. As the front moves through the region an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore. If the low strengthens fast enough then it will throw back some moisture to the west over the cold air. There will also be an upper level low sliding through Sunday into Monday.
So the latest models are in some agreement about these features, but they are far from locking down a solution. The GFS model has some light precip in the area Sunday morning as the front comes in. It looks like a mix at first. Then it has a mix and some snow into the afternoon.
It has this precip mostly drying up by the evening, but it keeps a few flurries in overnight into Monday morning.
The European model starts the precip later (late morning or afternoon) except for a few areas north of the metro. It does bring a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow to the area, but it looks more like a melting mix than anything.
It keeps the precip going a little longer in the evening, but it does have it turning into rain or a mix before ending. I don’t know where that milder air would come from. So we’ll see about that. The latest NAM model is pretty dry through Sunday afternoon. It does have a brief mix in the morning with the front, but so far it looks like it keeps the low much farther offshore than the other models. It’s still too early to tell if another low will form late Sunday.
Update: The 12Z NAM does have rain and a mix in the afternoon with a strip of mix changing to snow in the evening. It does have a secondary low forming offshore in the evening. It has a strip of snow between Richmond and the Northern Neck through that time. It cuts off in the evening, but future runs will take it through Sunday night.
The amounts for snowfall from the GFS model and the Euro look pretty light. Though the GFS model potentially has a lot up toward Richmond.
Remember the ground will have warmed up quite a bit before Sunday. I mean we’ll have 3 days in a row with highs in the 60s. Plus the ground could be wet at first. If we get a mix and temps stay above freezing in the afternoon, then I believe most of the snow or mix will melt. Even with the lighter amounts of falling snow the roads should be fine. To me this is looking like it will be mainly a melting mix over the region. However, it’s still early. I’d like a day or two of this short-term heat to make it into future model runs. Then we’ll see how the models fare. We’ll also see if the NAM keeps trending with the fairly dry forecast. So stay tuned for updates through the day. Just know that we are watching it closely as it could impact travel to view the Big Game! Until then….enjoy the great weather!
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler