Quiet weather will prevail through the remainder of our Wednesday, then things turn warm, windy and a bit stormy tomorrow. You may then say… “Isn’t it Christmas Eve”? Yes…yes it is. C’mon 2020. Can you PLEASE give us a break? Let’s talk about it.
High pressure is in the region today. It will slowly slide offshore by days end.
We’ll have partly cloudy skies with a light southeast wind developing. High temps will rise to the mid 50s. The air is still fairly dry. By tomorrow the strong warm front will rise through our region. The winds will increase out of the south through the day.
That is the steady wind. The wind (gusts) could rise up to 35-40mph outside of any rain or storms that form. This wind will pump in the moisture and help drive our temperatures to near 70°(!). That’s even with the lack of sunshine expected.
There will be some isolated showers in the morning in our region, but there will be a few bigger clusters of showers closer to I-95. This looks like the case for around midday as well.
During the late afternoon some of the scattered showers will get closer to the metro. But the bulk of the rain will still be to our west. However, showers and storms will start to move in by the evening, likely just after sunset.
The general wind will already be strong. So as the thunderstorms form, they may be able to produce some severe winds locally. On top of that, there will be lots of strong upper level winds (wind shear), and some general spin in the atmosphere. So there could be some isolated tornadoes in the region.
Hampton Roads and northeast North Carolina are both under an enhanced risk of severe weather, level 3 of 5 for strong, potentially damaging, storms.
The rain and storms will continue into tomorrow night. Rain may be heavy at times. The cold front will roll through around or after midnight. Rain will taper off then into early Friday morning.
With the front coming in later, the chance for a wintry mix has been decreasing. Low temps will be near 40 Friday morning. We could see about 1-2″ or rain before it wraps up Friday morning. That is not good as the ground is still saturated. So some localized flooding will even be possible.
We’ll dry out behind the cold front on Christmas Day. Winds will be breezy out of the west. Gusts will be to 25mph. Temps will either hold or fall to the upper 30s to low 40s. A strong upper level low will hang back behind the front. This could give us a few sprinkles or flurries during the day and early evening. The air will be super cold in the mid the mid-upper levels. So even though surface temps will be above freezing. Flurries could possibly fall during the daytime. We’ll see. We’ll be dry and cold on Saturday with highs in the 40s.
The timing and details of the rain and storms still could change some before tomorrow. So stay tuned for updates.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler