The Iowa caucuses are less than two months away, and Republican candidates are preparing their final pitches to voters.
The race for the nomination has been dominated so far by former President Trump. The field has also recently been winnowed by the withdrawal of former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.).
Another big clash is just around the corner. The fourth debate will happen in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Dec. 6, hosted by NewsNation. The Hill and NewsNation are part of Nexstar Media Group.
Ahead of that, here are The Hill’s current rankings of the candidates vying for the nomination.
1. Former President Trump
Trump is the runaway favorite, and there may be no catching him.
The former president’s hold on the GOP seemed to have loosened just a year ago, when he took a large share of the blame for disappointing results in the midterms. Specifically, Trump endorsed a number of candidates who won primaries but lost in the general election.
In January, when data and polling site FiveThirtyEight began tracking the GOP nomination battle, Trump was ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by about 10 points nationally. Today, his lead is 47 points.
Trump stands at roughly 60 percent support, which suggests that even if the field narrowed to a one-on-one match-up, any rival would have a tough job defeating him.
There are several reasons why Trump’s position has strengthened.
First, his indictment in four separate criminal cases has catalyzed the GOP base to rally around him — even as it has outraged his critics all over again.
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Second, DeSantis has sputtered. The central thesis of the Florida governor’s campaign — that “MAGA” voters are open to an alternative standard-bearer— has come to look increasingly questionable.
Third, many polls now show Trump with an edge in a general election match-up against President Biden. This has made it far harder for Trump’s GOP rivals to get traction with the argument that he is unelectable.
It’s still theoretically possible that something could happen to blow Trump off course, or that voters’ allegiances will shift as they follow the race more closely.
But it’s not at all clear — given the innumerable controversies Trump has already weathered — what exactly could thwart him.
2. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley
Haley still trails DeSantis in national polls.
But she claims the second-place spot here because she is plainly on the rise, while DeSantis is treading water.
Strong debate performances have fueled Haley’s momentum.
Haley is an experienced politician who likes to remind audiences she has never lost an election. On the debate stage, she is fluent and confident.
The former governor of South Carolina — a state known for bare-knuckle politics — isn’t afraid to mix it up either. The single most memorable moment of the third debate came when she swatted away businessman Vivek Ramaswamy as “just scum” for raising her daughter’s use of TikTok.
Haley now has a firm hold on second place in New Hampshire, where DeSantis has sunk to fourth, and even fifth, in some polls.
Haley has been gaining ground in Iowa, too. Two polls within the past month have shown her in a tie with DeSantis for second in the Hawkeye State.
The only woman in the race, Haley is drawing renewed interest from GOP donors seeking a nominee other than Trump.
Haley is a more traditional Republican than Trump, especially on foreign policy. Her rhetoric is more carefully modulated, most notably on abortion. And she is, pretty clearly, the most electable of all the candidates in a general election.
It’s a very open question whether that can take her all the way to the nomination. But Haley looks to be at least en route to becoming the main alternative to Trump.
3. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
DeSantis’s campaign can’t be dismissed yet, but it clearly hasn’t lived up to expectations.
Tuesday brought new blasts of good and bad news.
The Florida governor won the endorsement of prominent Iowa conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats, adding to the backing he is already receiving from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R).
On the other hand, NBC News reported more infighting among his allies, including a meeting last week where two key figures “nearly came to blows.”
DeSantis’s campaign has been an oddity all around.
Speculation abounded for months that he would enter the race — then he did so with a glitch-ridden Twitter Spaces event. There have been pointless and strange furors, as when his campaign shared a video that included homoerotic images and aimed to hit Trump for being allegedly soft on LGBTQ issues. In July, DeSantis had to lay off roughly one-third of his staff, despite entering the race with a massive war chest.
The Florida governor’s backers maintain that his ground operation in Iowa can still pay dividends. He is clearly stronger there than in New Hampshire, and the endorsements will help.
The media always likes a new storyline, and it’s always possible DeSantis can somehow pull things together in the final stretch.
But up to now, it’s been a very underwhelming campaign.
4. Vivek Ramaswamy
Make no mistake, the battle for the GOP nomination is a three-horse race, at most.
Ramaswamy’s Trump enthusiasm makes him a hair more likely than Chris Christie to win the nomination, but it’s purely an abstract calculation.
In fact, the novelty seems to have worn off the Ramaswamy candidacy. In the FiveThirtyEight averages, he’s polling at just 5 percent nationally and in Iowa, and 7 percent in New Hampshire.
Ramaswamy, 38, has a fairly fervent online following, but there’s no real sign that will translate to the real world where his antics appear to irk more people than they attract.
Iowa polls from Selzer & Company — generally regarded as the gold standard in the state — showed the share of likely GOP caucusgoers who hold an unfavorable view of him almost doubled between August and October.
5. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
Christie has, in political parlance, a lane in this primary. The problem is his lane — as the fiercest Trump critic — isn’t likely to lead anywhere.
Christie’s attacks on Trump have earned him plenty of media attention, but very little support in a party where a vast majority of voters — 82 percent, according to the latest Economist/YouGov poll — holds a favorable impression of the former president.
Christie has put all his bets on New Hampshire, which has a long history of maverick behavior and — importantly — allows unaffiliated voters to request a ballot for either the Republican or Democratic primary on the day.
Christie is performing respectably in Granite State polls — he drew 14 percent support, good enough for third place, in a CNN survey released last week.
But there’s nowhere, really, for Christie to go from there.
Christie has real skills, which he displays on the debate stage, and which previously earned him two terms as the governor of a blue state.
It’s just that there’s a yawning gap between his position and that of today’s GOP.
