Spring is when we finally get to thaw out from the cold winter days as we welcome warmer weather cross Hampton Roads. But it’s also home to the severe weather season.
As we transition from winter to spring, the earth is changing it’s position around the sun. The days get longer and we welcome more sunlight, so things get warmer. The jet stream, which is the driving factor of all weather, has to compensate for the added warmth. It slowly lifts to the north, but it’s not a smooth process. For every two steps forward, there’s one step back.
As a result, the jet stream becomes more fluid. Allowing cold and warm air to move in places it doesn’t normally – this creates more dynamic and stronger storm systems, which is when severe weather tends to thrive.
During times of severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center is busy with their forecasts. Just as the National Hurricane Center focuses on tropical cyclones, the Storm Prediction Center focuses on severe weather. Their outlooks feature five levels of severe weather.
Levels one through three focus on the possibility of severe weather with changes in coverage, ranging from isolated to scattered to numerous. The difference between levels four and five is the confidence, widespread severe storms go from likely to expected. Which is why level four and five risks are rare to see.
Will we here across Hampton Roads see big storms out of this system? No. But there will be a few strong thunderstorms thrown into the mix, particularly Wednesday night into Thursday. As of now, expect scattered showers with a few thunderstorms, some of which could be on the stronger side.
Meteorologist Steve Fundaro