(The Hill) — Fewer Black Americans are certain they will vote in this year’s election than in the 2020 election, according to a new Washington Post/Ipsos survey.
Only 62% of Black voters said they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in November’s election, a 12-point decrease from June 2020 when 74% said the same.
The drop in voter interest could spell trouble for President Joe Biden. Black voters are a critical base for Democrats. In 2020, they helped Biden secure the White House.
But many Black voters have grown increasingly disappointed in the Biden-Harris administration since 2020.
Though Biden promised a host of reforms for criminal justice, police accountability and voting rights during his campaign, few changes have been made since he took office.
Young Black voters had the sharpest drop in voter interest this year. Just 41 percent of Black voters between the ages of 18 and 39 said they were certain to vote in November.
Young Black voters have grown frustrated with the president’s stance on the crisis in Gaza, and the cost of inflation remains a top-of-mind issue for all voters.
The survey also showed a clear gender divide among voters.
Only 39 percent of Black women between the ages of 18 and 39 are certain to vote this year, a steep decline from 69 percent in 2020.
The Biden-Harris reelection campaign was not immediately available for The Hill’s request for comment.
Still, Biden remains the favorable pick over former President Donald Trump. The Post-Ipsos poll found that 74 percent of Black registered voters say they will “definitely” or “probably” vote for Biden, compared to only 14 percent who said they would vote for Trump.
This would be a significant increase in support for Trump, who has steadily gained Black voter support since 2016, when he earned just 8 percent of Black voters’ ballots.
But turnout is not guaranteed.
Only 51 percent of Trump supporters said they are certain to vote in November, while 78 percent of those who plan to vote for Biden said they are certain to vote.
Black voters in general have mixed views on Biden. Though 38 percent say his policies have helped Black people; nearly half say his policies have made no difference. Eleven percent say his policies have hurt Black people.
Black voters are more aligned on their views of Trump’s policies, which 55 percent said hurt Black people.
Fifty-five percent of Black voters trust Biden to handle racism, compared to only 6 percent who trust Trump. Fifty-four percent trust Biden on abortion, while only 9 percent trust Trump. Fifty percent trust Biden on the economy compared to only 16 percent who trust Trump.
Though Black voters’ certainty to vote has dropped some, more Black Americans approve of Biden than the general public.
Sixty-two percent of Black Americans approve of Biden’s job performance — down from 66 percent last year and from 70 percent in 2022 — while only about 40 percent of the general public approves.
The survey was conducted April 9-16 among 1,331 non-Hispanic Black adults 18 and over. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
