RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — New polling shows former President Donald Trump is beating President Joe Biden in Virginia.
The latest Emerson College poll, sponsored by WRIC’s parent company Nexstar, found that 45% of registered voters in Virginia are backing Trump, with Biden garnering 43% of the vote.
“The real question is, is any of this getting to Biden? Do the people around him tell him?” said Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “He is in deep, deep, deep, trouble.”
Sabato said the poll should serve as a warning sign to the Biden campaign. Biden beat Trump by ten points in Virginia on his way to winning the White House in 2020.
“Biden is running 12 points below his showing in 2020,” Sabato said. “That’s terrible. I mean, it’s really awful. He is an incumbent president.”
Part of the problem for Biden is that Independents prefer a change in leadership — 46% of independents say they plan on voting for Trump, compared to only 38% who say they plan on voting for Biden.
Sabato said that, although the candidates are only three years apart in age, Independent voters think Biden is simply too old to be president.
“That debate between Biden and Trump pointed out for the rest of this campaign that Joe Biden is enfeebled, at least at times, and you do not want your president — the president of a superpower with lots and lots of nuclear weapons — to be enfeebled,” Sabato said.
It’s important to note that the poll was conducted from July 13 to 15. Sabato said that means it’s likely a majority of the respondents were interviewed after Trump was shot in an assassination attempt on July 13.
“That almost always creates a bump of sympathy for a candidate and it produces at least temporarily more votes,” Sabato said.
In a five-way race with independent candidates included, Trump’s lead grew to 5%. The margin of error for the poll was just 3%.