Looking to keep the holiday weekend rolling with some MLB best bets?
There are 15 games to dive into on Friday, July 5, and I’ve circled a few of them for my best bets.
I’m eyeing a pair of young pitchers to lead their teams to wins as short favorites, as well as a strikeout prop for a veteran lefty who hasn’t exactly pitched well in 2024.
Let’s break all of these picks down!
MLB Best Bets Today
- Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-130) vs. New York Mets
- Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-115) vs. Detroit Tigers
- Patrick Corbin OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-130) vs. New York Mets
Paul Skenes is on the mound for the 10th time in the 2024 season on Friday, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are slight favorites in a matinee matchup with the New York Mets.
I'm rolling with the Pirates rookie to earn another win on Friday, as he’s 4-0 and the Pirates are 6-3 straight up in his nine starts this season.
Luis Severino gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he's been solid in 2024 -- posting a 3.42 ERA -- but the Mets are just 8-8 in his 16 outings.
Skenes has been red hot, allowing one or fewer runs in four straight starts. Plus, the Mets have dropped a couple games in a row, potentially a sign that they’re coming back to earth after a great close to June.
Trust Skenes to get the job done at home.
Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-115) vs. Detroit Tigers
This is a rare spot where I’m fading the better starting pitcher, and that’s because Detroit has not been able to back him up this season.
Detroit Tigers starter Reese Olson (3.32 ERA, 2.90 FIP) has been the better starter in this matchup with Carson Spiers and the Cincinnati Reds, although Spiers is 2-1 as a starter this season and has won back-to-back starts.
The Tigers are just 3-13 (!!) when Olson is on the mound this season, a shocking record considering how low his ERA is in 2024.
I'll take a shot on Cincy -- especially at home -- on Friday.
Patrick Corbin OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Is Patrick Corbin undervalued against the St. Louis Cardinals?
The Washington Nationals starter has picked up four or more strikeouts in five of his last six starts, including five or more K’s in three straight outings.
He has a favorable matchup in this game, as St. Louis is 18th in the league in strikeouts per game (8.51) this season and ranks 29th in batting average against lefties (.217).
Corbin has been knocked around in the last few seasons, but he has cleared this prop in 10 of his 17 outings in 2024. Don’t sleep on him against an offense that stinks against lefties.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Trust Paul Skenes, Patrick Corbin Undervalued on Friday).